OMG – Deutsche Bank Expects Tesla To Report Q1 Profit

For Real?.

Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner said yesterday’s Tesla deliveries report blew his mind and expectations. Rosner is expecting Tesla to report first-quarter profit of $0.5 a share, compared with a previous estimate of loss of $1.25 a share.

A positive expectation coming from Deutsche Bank analysts is something to celebrate indeed.

Rosner at the same time raised his first-quarter revenue estimate by $1 billion to $5.9 billion and lifted his gross margin view to 22.1% from 21.3%.

Other analysts such as Wedbush analyst Dan Ive, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois, and JMP Securities analysts Joseph Osha weighed in.

According to Dan Ives “the deliveries data represented a small victory in a dark environment.”, he kept his rating at neutral.

Houchois reiterated a Hold rating and $800.00 price target. Houchois was impressed with yesterday’ report and said “deliveries report should be seen as positive given unusual seasonality where 50+% volume is delivered in the last month of each quarter. Focus ahead of Q1 results will be cash absorption from inventory/receivables (production c.14k units over deliveries) but this should be partly offset by payables and independent data suggest Shanghai ramp-up on track”.

According to The Fly, JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha keeps his Outperform rating and $840 price target on Tesla after its better than expected Q1 report, with production volume of 102.7K topping his estimate of 101.5K and deliveries of 76.2K Model 3s coming well above his estimate of 61.6K. The analyst says the numbers reflect the company’s focus on keeping its operations open in the U.S. as long as possible, adding that Tesla did its best to build inventory in advance of the shutdown. Osha warns however that the company may still find itself supply-constrained in Q2, depending on when Tesla can reopen production in U.S. and how quickly its China production can be ramped.

What is your expectation concerning Q1 ER?. Feel free to share with us in the comment section.

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